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On the Current and Future Dry Spell Characteristics over Africa

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dc.contributor.author Bouagila, B.
dc.contributor.author Sushama, L.
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-17T15:43:57Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-17T15:43:57Z
dc.date.issued 2013-09
dc.identifier.issn 2073-4433
dc.identifier.other doi:10.3390/atmos4030272
dc.identifier.uri http://www.taccire.sua.ac.tz/handle/123456789/207
dc.description.abstract Changes in precipitation frequency and intensity distribution over Africa will have a direct impact on dry spells and, therefore, will affect various climate sensitive sectors. In this study, the ability of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in simulating annual and seasonal dry spell characteristics is assessed for four precipitation thresholds (0.5 mm, 1 mm, 2 mm and 3 mm) over Africa. The dry spell characteristics considered are the number of dry days, number of dry spells and five-year return levels of maximum dry spell durations. The performance errors are assessed by comparing ERA-Interim driven CRCM5 with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset, for the common 1997–2008 period. Lateral boundary forcing errors, i.e., errors in the CRCM5 simulation created by errors in the driving Canadian Earth System model (CanESM2) data—as well as the added value—of CRCM5 over CanESM2 are also assessed for the current climate. This is followed by an assessment of projected changes to dry spell characteristics for two future climates (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) simulated by both CRCM5 driven by CanESM2 and CanESM2 itself, for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. Results suggest that CRCM5 driven by ERA-Interim has a tendency to overestimate the annual mean number of dry days and the five-year return level of the maximum dry spell duration in a majority of the regions while it slightly underestimates the number of dry spells. In general, the CRCM5 performance errors associated with the annual and seasonal dry spell characteristics are found to be larger in magnitude compared to the lateral boundary forcing errors. Projected changes to the dry spell characteristics for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods, with respect to the 1981–2010 period suggests significant changes in the tropics, with the mean number of dry days and the five-year return levels of maximum dry spell duration increasing, while the mean number of dry spell days decreases. en_GB
dc.language.iso en en_GB
dc.publisher MDPI, Basel, Switzerland en_GB
dc.relation.ispartofseries Atmosphere 2013;4, 272-298
dc.subject Africa en_GB
dc.subject Climate change en_GB
dc.subject Climate model en_GB
dc.subject Dry spell en_GB
dc.subject Climate variability en_GB
dc.subject Global Climate Models en_GB
dc.title On the Current and Future Dry Spell Characteristics over Africa en_GB
dc.type Article en_GB

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