Water quality index assessment under climate change

Abstract

Surface water quality may change in the future due to climatic variability as natural processes will most likely be modified by anthropogenic activities. As such, stream temperature is very likely to change as well which will impact on surface water quality and aquatic ecosystem dynamics. The present study focused on improving modelling of surface water quality indices and water quality parameters under various climate change scenarios in relationship with stream temperature. Future climate data were extracted from the Canadian Coupled General Climate Model (CGCM 3.1/ T63) under the greenhouse emission scenarios B1 and A2, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This study illustrates the usefulness of the stream temperature models, coupled with Climate Change Scenarios to predict the evolution of future stream water temperature regimes and associated biogeochemical water quality parameters pertaining to drinking water quality. The specific objectives of the present study were to analyze the surface water quality of 15 rivers in New Brunswick (Canada) on the basis of 9 parameters under climate change. A Weighed Method and the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) Method were used to assess the water quality for each river under present and future climate. The knowledge gained from this study will enable engineers and water resources managers to better understand river thermal regimes and climate change impact on water quality related to Drinking Surface Water.