Modelling climate change adaption in vulnerable crop and livestock production systems in Mgeta, Tanzania

Abstract

Increased occurrences of draught and dry spells during growing seasons have resulted in increased interest for protection of tropical water catchment areas. In the paper, we examine opportunities for improving economic performance and explore more environmental sustainable adaptation strategies in the integrated crop-livestock production systems in Mgeta, a water catchment area in the Uluguru Mountains, Tanzania. In Mgeta water for fruit and vegetable production is provided through canals from the Uluguru forest reserve. The clearing of forest land for cultivation in the steep slopes is causing severe land degradation, threatening the water source, livelihoods and food security of the local communities as well as major population centers in the lowlands. A linear programming (LP) crop-livestock model, maximizing farm income, is applied for studying the economic performance of dairy goats in the production system today and in a scenario with lower crop yields and increased variability due to climate change. Data obtained from a questionnaire to a sample of farmers were used to develop and parameterize the model. The assessments suggest that in the steep slopes of the area a crop-dairy goat system with extensive use of grass and MPPT will do better under climate change since the yield variation of the grass and MPPT system is less affected compared to vegetable crops due to more tree cover and the perennial grasses. Currently goat milk production is limited by inadequate feeding, and farmers should purchase more concentrate feed to enhance production of the dairy goats. Policy measures to promote such a development are briefly mentioned.