Implications of present and future landcover change on small holder agriculture within the context of REDD+ in Tanzania: a case of Mgori forests in Singida rural District

Abstract

Mgori forest is located in Singida Rural district and is under Community Based Forest Management (CBFM). The forest has maintained its forest status and in general has demonstrated its potential for Reduced Emission from Deforestation and forest Degradation and conservation (REDD+) implementation because; i) communities living adjacent to these forest have experience on forest management practices; iii), have realized benefits from the forest including climate change mitigation and iv) they have willingness to conserve the forests and have very high expectations to get benefit in terms of financial emanating from carbon trade. The present study investigated the present and future land use and cover changes for years 2020, 2030 up to 2040. A cross tabulation analysis method was used to detect and explain changes, while future land and cover change was established using Markov Chain-Cellular automata analysis. The state of land cover at time 2 was predicted by observing a state of land cover at time 1 using a matrix of transition probabilities from one land cover to every other land cover. Findings in Mgori forest predictions showed that cultivated, bushland and thickets land covers will increase by 2020 and thereafter remain constant while woodlands will decrease by 2020 and then remain constant. It can therefore be concluded that for areas already under CBFM what is required under REDD+ is to improve the management of agricultural land to sustain productivity as the room for much expansion of land is not warranted. This can be achieved through capacity building to farmers and other agricultural stakeholders through their local agricultural innovation systems.